Two headlines came out of Central Oregon this spring that flatly contradicted each other. Bend's single-family median sale price climbed from $699,000 in April 2026 to $795,000 in May, a jump of $96,000 in thirty days. In the same stretch, Sunriver's median fell from $865,000 to $748,000, a drop of $117,000. If you were comparing these two markets on price alone, you'd conclude Bend was overheating and Sunriver was cooling fast.
Neither conclusion would be right. Both numbers moved because of what happened to sell that month, not because homes suddenly became worth more or less. If you're weighing Bend against Redmond against Sunriver right now, the median price you see quoted is the least reliable number in the report, and knowing why changes how you should read every market update between now and closing.
What Actually Moved in Bend
Bend's median didn't rise because every home in town got 14 percent more valuable overnight. It rose because the mix of what closed shifted upmarket. In April 2026, roughly 28 percent of Bend's transactions closed above $1 million. In May, that share climbed to more than 32 percent, with the heaviest concentration of sales landing in the $1 million to $1.2 million range. A handful of luxury closings pulled the median with them.
This is the same reason a room's average height jumps when a few tall people walk in. Nobody got taller. The room just changed who was standing in it. Bend's total inventory that month sat at roughly three and a half months of supply, according to the Beacon Report, the Redmond-based appraisal firm whose monthly figures anchor most Central Oregon market coverage. That number barely moved. The median did, because the mix moved and the median is sensitive to mix in a way inventory levels are not.
Sunriver Runs on a Different Clock
Sunriver's swing tells the same story from the other direction. Its median dropped by more than $100,000 in a single month last November too, sliding from a prior month's figure to $723,000, a pattern the Beacon Report flagged as unremarkable given how the resort market actually trades. Sunriver's sales each month are a rotating blend of vacation homes, investment purchases, and full-time luxury residences, and which category dominates in any given thirty-day window has an outsized effect on the median because Sunriver simply closes far fewer transactions than Bend does. A handful of high-end cabin sales can push the number up. A month heavier on smaller, older units can pull it right back down. Neither move reflects the underlying value of a typical Sunriver property changing.
Donnie Montagner, who owns the appraisal firm behind the Beacon Report, put the broader pattern plainly when the Bend Bulletin asked him about the swings heading into 2026:
"We are in normal market conditions for Central Oregon's seasonal market. A 50 to 60 day time on the market is not unusual. We're in what I call a tempering market."
That's a useful phrase. Tempering, not turning. The month-to-month noise is real, but it isn't the trend.
The Number That Didn't Move Nearly As Much
If median price is this noisy, what should a buyer comparing towns actually look at? Price per square foot strips out most of the mix problem, because it measures value per unit rather than the price of whatever happened to sell. Bend's median sale price per square foot sat at $372 as of August 2026, down a modest 3.6 percent from a year earlier. Compare that to the 14 percent one-month median swing in the same market, and you can see why appraisers lean on the square-foot number when they want a read on where values are actually heading.
Redmond showed the inversion just as clearly. Reporting on the Redmond market through the first third of 2026, The Source Weekly found that the shift toward more lower-priced sales was pushing the overall median sale price down for the year, while price per square foot was actually climbing over the same stretch. A falling headline number and a rising underlying value, at the same time, in the same town. If you only read the median, you'd think Redmond was softening. The square-foot number says otherwise.
Here's how the three towns lined up when you separate the noisy number from the steadier one:
| Town | Recent Monthly Swing | What Actually Changed | Steadier Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bend | $699K to $795K, April to May 2026 | Share of $1M+ sales rose from 28% to more than 32% | Price per square foot: $372, down 3.6% year over year as of August 2026 |
| Sunriver | $865K to $748K, May 2026 | Fewer luxury and vacation-home closings that month | Months of supply held near four, largely unchanged |
| Redmond | Median trending down through early 2026 | Mix shifted toward lower-priced sales | Price per square foot moved higher even as the median fell |
How to Actually Compare Neighborhoods Right Now
If you're deciding between Bend, Redmond, and Sunriver, or trying to time an offer around what you're reading in a market update, a few habits will keep you from being misled by a single month's headline.
- Ask what share of last month's closings were above $1 million, especially in Bend or Sunriver. That share moves the median more than anything else.
- Look at price per square foot across at least two consecutive months, not one. A single month's figure can still wobble. A two or three month trend is much harder to fake with mix shifts.
- Check months of supply before you check the median. Supply moves slowly and reflects real competitive pressure between buyers and sellers, which the median does not.
- Remember that Sunriver closes far fewer homes each month than Bend does, so its median is mathematically noisier. A market with fewer transactions swings harder on the same size mix change.
- If a seller in any of these towns is pricing against last month's median, ask which comps built that median. In a low-volume month, the answer might be three or four homes that don't resemble the one being priced.
None of this means the underlying Central Oregon market is unstable. It means the monthly median is a blunt instrument being asked to do a precise job. Well-priced homes in Bend were still closing in an average of 13 days this spring when the seller respected the comps rather than the headline, which tells you the market itself was healthy even while the reported number bounced around.
A Few Questions Worth Asking Before You Read the Next Report
Does a falling median mean it's a good time to buy in Redmond? Not by itself. Redmond's median fell for the year largely because more lower-priced homes sold, not because every home in Redmond got cheaper. Price per square foot moving higher over the same period is the better indicator of what values are actually doing.
Should sellers in Sunriver worry about a month with a big price drop? A single month's median in a low-volume, mixed-inventory market like Sunriver is not a reliable pricing benchmark on its own. Comparing your home against recent sales of similar size, condition, and use, whether full-time residence or vacation property, will tell you more than the month's headline number.
Is there a single number that tells the whole story? No. Price per square foot, months of supply, and days on market each answer a different question, and reading them together gives a far more honest picture than any single figure, including the median, ever will.
If you're weighing Bend against Redmond against Sunriver, or trying to figure out what a specific home is actually worth against what a headline says the market is doing, that's exactly the kind of read Team Fitch does for clients across Central Oregon every week. Start Your Search or Book a Consultation, and we'll walk through the real numbers behind whichever neighborhood you're weighing.
